UA-33754892-1 Archives for 01 May 2011 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Wells Fargo Championship and Spanish Open

Close to a big week last week. All the selections were hanging around going into the last day but only Webb Simpson could give us a genuine run for our money. He was tied leader going into the final round, got off to a flyer and everything was going swimmingly well until he called a penalty shot on himself with four holes to play. The one shot penalty was for the ball moving after he had addressed a tap in from 10 inches. Very honest but incredibly frustrating. He ended up losing on the second extra hole despite dominating the whole of Sunday. Elsewhere Jbe Kruger came close to getting a place. If he had birdied the par 5 last he would have returned a 30/1 place. I predicted the continuation of Ernie Els’ poor form correctly, however I did not forecast how bad SY Noh would play and that cost us our treble. Oh well, at least we snuck a profit. We won 0.5 points on the week leaving us at 175.97 points of profit or £1759.70 to a £10 stake.

This week is the player’s favourite stop on the US Tour - The Wells Fagos Championship at Quail Hollow. Defending champion is Rory Mcilroy who had a stunning weekend of 66-62 last year. The Qualil Hollow course is one of the toughest on Tour. It ranks second highest in scoring average outside the Majors. It is a tight, tree lined course but a lot of the rough was taken out or made less severe three years ago and the greens were made firmer. This has tended to suit the longer hitters but over all I am looking for patient player. It is 7469 yards and with a bit of rain having fallen in the last few days length will be an advantage. But a patient player who can avoid bogies should be the profile of your winner this week.

I like Watney, Simpson, Woodland, Toms, Mahan, Rose, Laird and Watson.

Watney is an excellent player and fits the profile. Every one of his stats this year is impressive. 12th in driving distance, 17th in greens, 7th in putting, 5th in birdie average, 2nd in scoring average, 4th in total driving and 1st in the all round ranking. He has played here 6 times and has 5 top 25’s. His recent form makes the 20/1 look a little tight but T20 last week shows enough for me to make him a bet.

I think Webb Simpson has the form and ability to win here but last time he came close to winning and failed to get it done he took a few weeks to bounce back. I am going to leave him alone for now. Martin Laird showed at Bay Hill that he can play tough courses well but I won’t be interested in the 33/1 here. Way too short. Rose was on my shortlist last week. He could bounce back here, but then again he had the look of a player losing form rather than gaining form last week and I would not want to have a guess at 40/1. Hunter Mahan has mixed form here. He missed his first four cuts before posting three top 25’s. He went well last year and has been in smart form this year with five top 10’s in 10 starts. He would be a bet at 25/1 if I had not gone with Watney first. To back two fairly short ones is not a fast way to make money.

David Toms’ stats are solid. His form is solid. His weekend play is so frustrating. He keeps getting in position before falling away. I am going to give Toms, who ranks 3rd in driving accuracy, 3rd in greens in regulation and 10th in putting, another chance at 50/1. He also plays tough courses well.

Bubba Watson’s long game for the first three rounds last week was incredible. He hit 78% of fairways averaging 342 yards! It is slightly easier to win tournaments driving it like that!! I can’t take him this week at 25/1. I love the way he plays but to move the ball as much as he does on a tree lined course like this is not the recipe I am looking for. Plus his pitching and chipping looked more than questionable by the end of last week and he will need it here.

My final pick in the States is Gary Woodland. The bomber has a serious all round game. Not only 7th in driving distance but is 9th in greens in regulation, 8th in birdie average and 8th in scoring average. He can go well at 66/1

The Spanish Open is again a bit of a non event for me. Jimenez would be my pick but 14/1 is no price about the Spaniard who finished 2nd last week in Korea. I am going to go for some value in Spain. Some young guys who have a little bit of form and a lot of potential. Have a small each way interest on Romain Wattel at 175/1, Steven Tilley at 225/1 and David Dixon at 250/1

All prices with Geoff Banks Bookmakers - For the best private client betting service and prices bet with Geoff Banks -
www.geoff-banks.com

Wells Fargo Championship

2 pts each way Nick Watney @ 20/1
1 pt each way David Toms @ 50/1
1 pt each way Gary Woodland @ 66/1



Spanish Open

0.5 pts each way Romain Wattell @ 175/1
0.5 pts each way Steven Tilley @ 225/1
0.5 pts each way David Dixon @ 250/1

Special Bet

2pt treble in the 72 hole matches - Laird to bt Fowler @ 10/11, De Jonge to bt Barnes @ 10/11, Bourdy to bt Noren @ Evs

2011 running total +175.97 pts This weeks investment 13 pts

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