UA-33754892-1 Archives for 01 July 2018 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Irish Open and Greenbrier Classic

Greenbrier Classic - In Running (after round 3)


To Win


0.4 points Kevin Na @ 6.5 (+2.2)

player
imp %
books
bf
My Price
My %
Diff
Ex V.
Schauffele
22%
4.60

4.45
22.5%
1%
3.33
Varner III
18%
5.50

4.73
21.1%
3%
16.27
Na
15%
6.50

4.61
21.7%
6%
41.07
Kraft
14%
7.00

6.45
15.5%
1%
8.54
Watson
11%
9.00

11.74
8.5%
-3%
-23.34
Saunders
5%
19.00

15.69
6.4%
1%
21.06
Lahiri
4%
26.00

25.95
3.9%
0%
0.18
Moore
2%
41.00

42.35
2.4%
0%
-3.19
Lovemark
2%
51.00

33.12
3.0%
1%
54.00
Dahmen
2%
51.00

51.78
1.9%
0%
-1.51
Finau
1%
67.00

46.39
2.2%
1%
44.42
Armour
1%
67.00

76.78
1.3%
0%
-12.74
Kokrak
1%
101.00

86.78
1.2%
0%
16.39



Irish Open - In running (After Rd 3)


To Win


2 points Erik Van Rooyen @ 1.91 (-2)


Greenbrier Classic - In Running (after round 2)



To Win


0.25 points Anirban Lahiri @ 7 (-0.25)



Irish Open - In running (After Rd 2)


To Win


2 points Ryan Fox @ 7 (-2)




The Irish Open, a Rolex Series event on the European Tour, has attracted a decent field. The Military Tribute at the Greenbrier however, not so much. There are a few decent players at the top of the market but the bottom is distinctly average. Even John Daly gets a place. How long until bookmakers offer prices on Daly completing 36 holes when he gets these starts? 5/6 each of two? It's a disgrace how these exemptions and invites are issued. Give the young guys a chance. I think the draw of John Daly lost its edge quite a few years ago. On the other hand it is great to see Chris Couch back. Remember that one year we kept backing him and he kept getting in the mix, returned plenty of each way money? I love that guys game, Mickelson said he is the best golfer he's ever seen. Sadly injury has ruined his career, a complete comeback appears unlikely.

A Military Tribute at the Greenbrier is a title which is perhaps an overreaction to the 4th of July week but a very nice, respectful gesture all the same. Lets go with Greenbrier Classic for time purposes.

I think Mickelson's price in the Greenbrier Classic represents good value, you can take 16/1 about a 10/1 chance. He has a poor record at this course (a top 20 last year his best in four starts) but he is now an ambassador for the sponsor and has 7 top 15 finishes in his last 12 starts. There is less to beat here than in any of those 12 events. If he has a straight week from the tee he will be hard to beat. The rest of the 48 year old's game is statistically better than it has ever been, but he is not straight from the tee which is one of the key ingredients to success here. I hope he just hits that chop fade all week or developed a straight ball in preparation for The Open.

I am also keen on the neat and tidy play of Brian Harman, another left hander, who is a perfect fit for this golf course. You can bet 33/1 about a player I make 18/1. I would not put you off having some spare change on Kevin Kisner either. He doesn’t quite break through my criteria to be a bet, but is right on the border line (some simulations make him a bet others don’t) but he again is a very tidy player who will love this course.

In the Irish Open it is hard to look past Rory McIlroy. He has a cracking record on home soil and on links. Rahm romped home in this last year (different course) but I fancy Rory to be at his best. He should be peaking with The Open just a couple of weeks away and should putt better on links greens. I would have Rory at 5 and 8 is available.

My one concern is the course will be firm and fast, miss a fairway and greens will be hard to hold. When this is the case all players are left with dozens of 4 and 5 foot putts. Often the guy who holes out best wins. This is not Rory's strength, but he is one of the few that can be that good tee to green that he will be left fewer of these tests.


Irish Open


To Win


0.4 points Rory Mcilroy @ 8 (-0.4)

Top 5


0.4 points Ryan Fox @ 17 (-0.4)
0.4 points Henric Struehed @ 51 (+6.4)

Top 10


1 point Henric Struehed @ 17 (-1)


Top 20


0.5 points Ryan Fox @ 4.5 (+1.75)
2 points Henric Struehed @ 12 (-2)


First Round Leader

No Bet


72 Hole Matches (Sky Bet - tie no bet)

1.88 points Rafael Cabrera Bello to beat Knox @ 1.8 (-1.88)
0.48 points Rory McIlroy to beat Rahm @ 1.83 (-0.48)
0.48 points Matthew Fitzpatrick to beat Sullivan @ 1.83 (-0.48)
1.88 points Matt Wallace to beat Matthew Southgate @ 1.8 (-1.88)


Greenbrier Classic


To Win


0.25 points Phil Mickelson @ 17 (-0.25)
0.25 points Brian Harman @ 34 (-0.25)

Top 5


0.4 points Phil Mickelson @ 5 (-0.4)
0.4 points Kevin Kisner @ 15 (-0.4)

Top 10


0.4 points Vaughn Taylor @ 16 (-0.4)
0.4 points Hudson Swafford @ 21 (-0.4)


Top 20


0.5 points Vaughn Taylor @ 7 (-0.5)
1 points Hudson Swafford @ 9 (-1)


First Round Leader

No Bet


72 Hole Matches (Sky Bet - tie no bet)

2.2 points Anirban Lahiri to beat Danny Lee @ 1.91 (+2)
0.5 points Ryan Moore to beat Charles Howell @ 1.8 (+0.4)
2.74 points Xander Schauffele to beat Joaquin Niemann @ 1.73 (-2.74)




I have had quite a lot of feedback regarding the staking plan. Serious betters generally like it, casual punters not so much.

It is important to focus on bet size. It is as, if not more important, than the selections themselves in regard to showing profit.

It seems a suitable time, as we are halfway through the year, to change it too be better for both.

It is easy to keep the p&l record going, as I explained before, you could just divide the stakes by 10 and you would be representative of the previous staking plan, just without the round numbers.

The new staking stratergy, although similar to before (eg. If your normal bet is £10 then one point would equal £10) should work as a 'strength of bet guide' as well as a 'percentage of pot' guide. So, if I allocate 1 point to a bet this could 1) Show you this is a standard bet size but also 2) what percentage of your betting bank to allocate to this selection. Note the maximum percentage allocated to a bet would be 2% of your bank or 2 points, for odds on bets to win 2 points or 2%.

The points allocated to a bet reflect the size of our edge, the difference between the price available to bet and the price I think it should be, and are balanced in a way that proved most effective in back testing.

So if we have a;

2-5% edge I will allocate 0.25 points
5-8% edge 0.4 points
8-10% edge 0.5 points
10-12% edge 1 point
12-15% edge 1.5 ponts
15-20% edge 2 points

This is very similar to the strategy we have been using during the first half of the year. The main difference is the percentage chance of our selection winning is not taken into account. This may sound weird, but it makes the staking plan less volatile and also will reward big price winners much more. Most of our profit is based around landing a big fish rather than lots of little ones. It also doesn't make us so vulnerable to an attractive, short priced, large edged match bet where a stake is hugely inflated. The old system would up the stakes perhaps too much on bets like this and a loss would wipe out any chance of winning on that week.

Again, this has been back tested. The conclusion from these tests is a large, quick profit is less likely but it is a great plan for solid, steady, longterm growth.



This week's P&L = -5.62
This week’s investment = 22.31 points


This week's Outright P&L = -1.3
This weeks's Outright Investment = 12.15 points


This week's matches/specials/in running P&L = -4.32
This week's matches/specials/in running Investment = 10.16 points



2018 Total P&L = -59.19 points

2018 Total Investment = 1598.41 points

2018 Outright Bets P&L = -4.24 points
2018 Outright Bets Investment = 730.59 points

2018 matches/specials/in running P&L =  -55.05 points
2018 matches/specials/in running investment = 869.78 points


2017 total -37.24 points
2016 total +3.88 points
2015 total -116.28 points
2014 total -103.98 points
2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points

2010 total +189.33 points
8 Year Total +432.63 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

Staking System

Updated 1st July 2018 - I have had quite a lot of feedback regarding the staking plan. Serious betters generally like it, casual punters not so much.


It is important to focus on bet size. It is as, if not more important, than the selections themselves in regard to showing profit.

It seems a suitable time, as we are halfway through the year, to change it too be better for both.

It is easy to keep the p&l record going, as I explained before, you could just divide the stakes by 10 and you would be representative of the previous staking plan, just without the round numbers.

The new staking stratergy, although similar to before (eg. If your normal bet is £10 then one point would equal £10) should work as a 'strength of bet guide' as well as a 'percentage of pot' guide. So, if I allocate 1 point to a bet this could 1) Show you this is a standard bet size but also 2) what percentage of your betting bank to allocate to this selection. Note the maximum percentage allocated to a bet would be 2% of your bank or 2 points, for odds on bets to win 2 points or 2%.

The points allocated to a bet reflect the size of our edge, the difference between the price available to bet and the price I think it should be, and are balanced in a way that proved most effective in back testing.

So if we have a;

2-5% edge I will allocate 0.25 points
5-8% edge 0.4 points
8-10% edge 0.5 points
10-12% edge 1 point
12-15% edge 1.5 ponts
15-20% edge 2 points

This is very similar to the strategy we have been using during the first half of the year. The main difference is the percentage chance of our selection winning is not taken into account. This may sound weird, but it makes the staking plan less volatile and also will reward big price winners much more. Most of our profit is based around landing a big fish rather than lots of little ones. It also doesn't make us so vulnerable to an attractive, short priced, large edged match bet where a stake is hugely inflated. The old system would up the stakes perhaps too much on bets like this and a loss would wipe out any chance of winning on that week.

Again, this has been back tested. The conclusion from these tests is a large, quick profit is less likely but it is a great plan for solid, steady, longterm growth.


2018 onwards - The updated staking plan incorporates a simple formula that calculates the proportion of your balance to wager on a particular gamble. The calculation determines a recommended stake based on prevailing odds and an estimated probability that the selection will win.

The strength of bet is still advised in points. These points are representative to your chosen bankroll. The ratio used in my advice is to an initial bank of 1000 points. So if this bank is £100, £1000 or £10000 is up to you. But 1 point to a bank of £100 will be £0.10, to £1000 £1, to £10,000 £10. In this respect it is the same as the old system. 


Back testing carried out on the previous 7 years selections has shown much larger profits on winning years and only a marginally higher loss in losing years. It will carry slightly higher volatility overall, but the testing has shown it to be a much better, more profitable and frankly more enjoyable system. 


Pre 2018 - The advice came with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A '1 point' bet meant placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then '1 point' signifies £10.

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