UA-33754892-1 Archives for 01 January 2012 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Africa Open and Hyundai Tournament of Champions

So the last picks of 2011 did not fly. Matteo Manassero made the cut but did not come up with much on the weekend. He is is not really in form but it is great to get them when they are coming back into form, and that was my plan. Jarrod Lyle had a good solid week but not good enough to reward us financially. He got his US Tour Card back at Tour School this year and may be one to keep an eye on in 2012. He has a lot of game. In Thailand Kiradech Aphribarnrat started poorly and finished well but again, not well enough. Westwood in Thailand was unreal. He is playing some golf which is off the charts. His first round of 60 was as impressive as his Sun City third round of 62. If he maintains that sort of form into 2012 it may be worth taking some shortish prices about him as there is no one in the world at the moment good enough to compete with that sort of scoring. Donald however could not help us out by making up the double. We ended up losing the 13 points invested leaving us at +370.78 points up for 2011 or £3707.80 to a £10 stake.

We finished up +189.33 points in 2010 and +370.78 points in 2011 so the pressure is on for another big year. With a bit of work and a bit of luck hopefully we can do the same in 2012. So lets get to it.

The season starts on both sides of the Atlantic this week. Lets go to Africa first for the first event of the European Tour season. The African Open is played at East London Country Club and is a tough way to start the year. It is a mixed bag of South Africans, rusty European Tour players and rookies. It is hard to have any real confidence in a pick here so we will ease our way into the new year. Louis Oosthuizen is the market leader at 11/2 and comes here as defending champion. He showed some decent form at the end of 2011 and is the most obvious pick but 11/2 is short. I have to have a fair bit of confidence in a player to back them at prices like that and for me he is a pass. Goosen is 10/1. That price is like buying label clothes, you are paying for the name, his form does not suggest that 10/1 could ever make him a bet.

There are perhaps too many question marks next to many of these players at shorter prices so lets find some value. Tommy Fleetwood at 66/1. That looks good to me. He had a huge season for a young player last year, including a top five at the Dunhill Links. He has travelled extensively including a two week spell in South Africa before Christmas. This experience should make him feel comfortable here and he is good enough to contend in a relatively weak field. Trevor Fisher Jnr was another player who caught the eye at 80/1 and has a strong record in this event. He showed a little form in the two events before Christmas and is tempting but maybe the price is just a little stingy. My second pick is Chris Swanepoel. I played a lot with Chris in SA and he is a fearless, aggressive player. 400/1 is a big price for a player who finished 13th in the SA Open and 4th in this event in 2010. He has won a couple of times on the Sunshine Tour and can have a big week. My final pick is a very similar player. Guillaume Cambis. He won the Alps Tour Order of Merit last year. This boy can play as well as he can party and he parties like George Best and he is super confident right now. He has never suffered from a lack of belief but having won the last two events on the Alps Tour and 2nd stage of Tour School before finishing 10th at final stage to get a card. That will put him in buoyant mood here. He may well have been saved from a New Year hangover as he was probably stuck on a plane at the time which is a huge positive! It is a big ask to win first time out but he knows this is a good chance for him and he can go close. The only firm who price up the Alps Tour events are well aware of his ability only offering 125/1 but 250/1 is available with Geoff Banks so enjoy this piece of New Year value.

There is quite a contrast between the fields assembled each side of the Atlantic. The Hyundai Tournament of Champions, as the name suggests, boasts 28 of last years tournament winners. The two usual winners, Geoff Ogilvy and Stuart Appleby did not qualify this year and Jonathan Bird can become the fourth Champion to defend this title. I can’t see that, but who will win?

Stricker and Simpson are the 8/1 joint favourites. Both obviously great players and great putters who can do well anywhere but this course certainly suits the longer hitters. Robert Garrigus, who was my 125/1 pick last year was proof of that, narrowly missing out in a playoff. I like Watney 10/1, Watson 16/1 and Woodland 18/1. Watson finished 25th here last year but is said to have shot 58 (-14) in practice the other day so is obviously playing nicely! This course sets up well for him and the price seems fair despite a long break. I will undoubtedly be backing Woodland a lot this year but I am not sure this is the best place to start. 18/1 is tight, in my eyes he should be a 25/1 chance or bigger. Watney loves courses where he can stand up and smash driver without any consequences. Kapalua is wide. If he is sharp after a break then 10/1 is a good price and looking how he started last year, he should be.

So there we are, the first picks of 2012…..good luck!

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Africa Open

1 pt each way Tommy Fleetwood @ 66/1
0.5 pts each way Guillaume Cambis @ 250/1
0.5 pts each way Chris Swanepoel 400/1

Hyundai Tournament of Champions

2 pts Nick Watney @ 10/1
1.5 pts each way Bubba Watson @ 16/1

2012 running total 0 pts This weeks investment 9 pts

2011 total +370.78 pts
2010 total +189.33 pts

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My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.