UA-33754892-1 Archives for 01 December 2013 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Hong Kong Open, Northwestern Mutual World Challenge and Nedbank Challenge

Last Week

I think it is fair to say we were fairly unfortunate last week. A two shot swing on the last saw Adam Scott lose a one shot lead to Rory Mcilroy. It saw us lose our 1pt double on Scott and the impressive, error avoiding, Schwartzel.

De Jonge looked as though he may make us some money. Entering day 4 in 7th, he ended up posting a 74 to finish 20th.

Hahn got disqualified during the first round for using an alignment stick during a practice swing. Another point dropped. Gardiner missed the cut in Australia, making it a full house of losers. 6 points invested, none returned and a yearly figure of -15.22 points to show for it.

This Week

We have three events to look at this week. The Hong Kong Open, which has a weak line up, headed by Jimenez at 9/1. Northwestern Mutual World Challenge (Tiger’s invite tournament) where Tiger leads the market at 2/1 and the Nedbank Challenge where the red hot Swede, Henrik Stenson is the 3/1 market leader.

Hong Kong Open

This is a horrible looking betting heat. Jimenez is a justified favourite. His course form is top notch and his game has been in decent order. More importantly he has very little to beat. However, Jimenez is not the type of player I would be looking to back at single figure prices in any line up.

The problem is you look elsewhere and there is very little to take him on with. Olesen is second in at 20/1. That’s a player who is debuting here and has shown very little since Spring time. Olesen at 20/1 tells you more about this line up than Jimenez’s 9/1. Half the line up is from the Asia Tour. Just very little to get excited about.

By the numbers I liked Andersson Hed, Derkson and Randhawa but at 40/1, 33/1 and 50/1 respectively there is no betting to be done. I was hoping one would be in triple figures before seeing how they had been priced up. I used to love this event, but this edition is dire.

I am going to make two small plays. One on Wen-Chong Liang and the other on John Hahn. Liang has good recent form and has five top 20’s and a 22nd in his last 7 starts here. He won 3 weeks ago on the Asian Tour, 45/1 in this field is fair. Hahn is given another chance, for the reasons I gave last week and for the reason he now knows not to use a practice aid in competition! 150/1 is decent.

Northwestern Mutual World Challenge

This event gives us a very different headache from Hong Kong. The line up is too good! 10 Major winners among the 18 that tee it up. They are all world class and frankly you could back any player and justify it, with the exception, perhaps, of Bubba Watson, who has shown some rank form of late.

Woods has a great record in his own event and has won 5 times this year. 5/2 should have its takers and I think he will go off shorter but I am not getting involved as he is coming off a decent break and others are maybe more tuned up. Same goes for Stricker. The early 3/1 Woods would have been taken.

Dustin Johnson, we know now, goes well fresh. Is this break long enough? I’m not sure and I am also not sure if the course will really suit him. I will not play at 18/1.

The guy I do like here, who has played some exceptional stuff of late, is Webb Simpson. 20/1 seems very fair when you consider Mcdowell is as short as 10’s in a few places, although 12’s is widely available. For me Webb should be third in the betting behind Woods and Rory so 20/1 seems generous.

Like I say, you can make a great case for all of these apart from Bubba, Simpson for me is the one that stands out with a bit of value in the price.

When there are a few more 72 hole matches and specials up tomorrow I will look for a way to best oppose Bubba. There should be a couple of nice opportunities out there and if found, I will let you know.

Nedbank Challenge

I miss the 12 man line up for this. 30 go to post this time around. It’s easy to like the top four here. Stenson, Rose, Schwartzel and Garcia are definitely the ones to beat. The line up is decent though. Still, there must be some each way value in any of the players priced over 100/1 in a 30 man field and 1/4 the odds the first four. I just can’t work out which one it is though!

The one I like is Ryan Moore. Again, like Simpson, not because I think he is better or more likely than the others just I think his price is wrong. For me, with the way he has played the last few months, he should be no bigger than 20/1 for this. 40/1 is huge. Too good to be ignored.

Northwestern Mutual World Challenge

1 point each way Webb Simpson @ 20/1

Hong Kong Open

0.75 points each way Wen-Chong Liang @ 45/1

0.5 points each way John Hahn @ 150/1

Nedbank Challenge

1.5 points each way Ryan Moore @ 40/1

2013 running total = -15.22 points. This week’s investment 7.5 points. This weeks P&L = -7.5

2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

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My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.