UA-33754892-1 Archives for 01 April 2012 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

The Masters Round 2

2nd Round Three Balls

1pt trixie

Anders Hansen 6/4 to Bt Lawrie and Mize
Bo Van Pelt 2/1 to Bt Kaymer and Scott
Quiros 9/4 to Bt Stensin and Woodland

2012 running total -5.12 points.

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject 'register'

2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points


My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.

Twitter: @jasonkellygolf
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The Masters

Keegan Bradley’s bogey on the 72nd hole of the Shell Houston Open was a little costly. He looked like he had a decent opportunity to challenge to win but instead shared 4th with 4 others. Only half our stake goes forward because of the tie so he only won us 6.25 points. We lost 2 points on Stanley who again showed very little despite making the cut. Another 2 points went on the fast starting Brian Harmon. The 150/1 late pick looked like an inspired choice after storming through his first 8 holes in -6 but that was as good as it got. He made 7 on the par 4 11th and was never seen on the board again. We won 2.25 points on the week but when including our 3 point ante-post stake on Bo Van Pelt for the Masters our 2012 total slipped 0.75 points to -5.12 points or -£51.20 to a £10 stake.

Our total is in the red but we have already laid out 13 points on this weeks Masters. We are actually 7.88 points ahead year to date. This week we already have 6 points on Woods at 13/2 and 4 points at 7/1. We also have 1.5 points each way on Bo Van Pelt. These two players are still my most fancied players going into the week.

The ideal profile for a Masters Champion is an experienced, patient, ball striker who has a deft touch on and around the greens. There is a major emphasis on length as one has to milk the par 5’s. Last year the par 5’s played to an average of 4.65 and the par 4’s to 4.12 so the 5’s hide the mistakes on the rest of the course. Schwartzel was -9 for them last year, only -1 on the last day. That combined with a forecast of rain on Friday, temperatures around 20 degrees all week with some gusty winds Friday and Saturday suggests long hitters will have a distinct advantage.

Therefore the first of the fancied runners I am going to dismiss is
Luke Donald. He has a decent record here as there is no one better on and around the greens (ranked 1st in putting and 7th in scoring) but a player who is 185th in total driving (179th in distance and 79th in accuracy) and 120th in greens in regulation is surely venerable. I do think he can compete but if Rory or Tiger play to their potential. 16/1 is very tight. Steve Stricker is in the same mould. For me he is much better value though at 55/1 and is worth consideration. For me inside 100 yards he is the only one close to Donald but has the added bonus of being 3rd in greens in regulation. But again the 154th in total driving is off-putting (164th in distance, 75th in accuracy). They can both putt their way to victory but are venerable to the better ball strikers.

Bill Haas has become a big tournament player. He won at the Northern Trust and came 4th at the Farmers Insurance. He is a very solid player and hits a draw which is an advantage here. His stats are also very solid and he has not missed a cut this year. He can definitely get in the mix and at 100/1 is decent value. His Masters form is not great however and to me he seems to be running a bit flat. He has broken 70 once (69) in his last 8 rounds and finished 29th in his last two events. Again, he can go well but not for me.

Angel Cabrera loves Augusta. He won in ’09 and has 5 top 10’s in 12 appearances. He is in ok form too having finished in the top 25 twice in his last 3 starts. 100/1 is fair about the volatile Argentinian but 149th in putting is very off-putting. Jason Day (40/1) will have his supporters after three impressive Major performances last year, including a 2nd place finish here. This year he has been poor. Only cracking the top 20 once in four starts mainly due to being 182nd in driving accuracy and 181st in greens in regulation. I will pass. Nick Watney has the perfect game for this course and looks sure to be a champion of the future but this year he has only posted one top 10 in 8 starts due mainly to a cold putter (ranked 124th). He just is not firing at the moment. He was a birdie machine this time last year now he ranks 103rd in birdies per round. I will leave him for another year.

KJ Choi is another who loves Augusta and has twice had the lead on Sunday, including last year. His game should not really suit but his record defies this. However his form this year doesn’t. One top 10 in 7 starts and only one other top 25, a 24th in the Northern Trust. The Tank can’t be backed at 66/1. I would imagine Matt Kuchar (66/1) has made this page more money than any other player. He was the star of my first year tipping. He was a great putter then but he tinkered around to try and get even better. He failed and now ranks 107th using a belly putter. The rest of his game is in good shape and had a great run at this event as an amateur. He has a solid record as a pro too. He last played at the Transitions Championship in the middle of March, he closed off with a 65 for a share of 10th, his third top 10 in a row. If in his time off he has found his putting again he can’t be dismissed. I like Kuchar.

Hunter Mahan is the only multiple winner on Tour this year and will come here full of confidence. He finished in the top 10 here in ’09 and ’10 and is first in birdies or better on par 4’s. There is a lot of ticks in the right boxes. 6th in driving accuracy, 9th in greens and 13th in scoring He can go close but for some reason I just don’t fancy him. I am not convinced with his chipping and pitching, although that is much improved. This may come back to bite me but I am going to dismiss him on the basis he is not overly long and does not have as gooder short game as some. Hmmm tough one but you can’t back them all!

Brandt Snedeker has a good Masters record and won at the Farmers Insurance in January. 80/1 is a fair price. He finished 15th here last year and could have won in ’08 when shooting 77 on the last day to finish 3rd. 113th in greens in reg and 125th in total driving is going to put pressure on his excellent putting. Not for me. Webb Simpson sets up well for Augusta. Although we now view him as an established player this is his Masters debut. He has all the weapons to do well but this event has not been kind to debutants in the last 70 years unless your name is Fuzzy. Therefore we can not take the generous 66/1. Same goes for Keegan Bradley. Arguably the most inform, certainly the most consistent player on Tour this year. 9 top 25’s in 9 starts this year and top 10’s in his last 2. He seems to contend every week and he is the last player to win a Major and the only player in the field with a 100% record in Majors! He is top 25 in distance, greens and putting. A lethal combination but again debuts so can not be backed at 35/1. Jason Dufner (125/1) is another with the stats to contend, an excellent ball striker, but this is his first Masters.

Sergio Garcia has been talked about, as he always is when a Major comes around. His form at the end of last season would put him close here and at 55/1 he appears to be a bit of value. He is worth a look as his putting has improved massively. He ranks 13th in the category. However he has zero top 10’s at Augusta and, despite it being a decent fit for him, claims he is not a fan of the course. He has one top 10 in 5 starts this year and that was back in February. I think we will leave him alone.

Justin Rose does well at Augusta and is in great form. The WGC win at Doral was huge for him. He has had a very solid year outside of the win and is obviously in the form of his life. 33/1 is too short for me. If I could get around 10/1 on him leading at anytime I would take it for sure but others make more appeal to me. Bubba Watson is one of those. He has just adopted a boy and should have some good vibes coming into this week. He has played 8 events this year and failed to finish outside the top 20, this includes three top 5’s. He leads driving distance and greens hit in regulation. He is 3rd in eagles and 8th in birdies. 50/1 seems on the big side. But, and it is a big but, he has had three starts at Augusta and his best finish in tied 20th in 2008. He has broken 71 once in 12 rounds. He is a better player this year. The big question is does he putt well enough to win at Augusta. The simple answer is no but he can hit the ball well enough to compensate for his mediocre putting. He is an interesting contender.

I wanted to be with
John Senden this week as he is such a good ball striker and Aussies have always gone well at Augusta. 200/1 is a big price but he has never made a cut here. Bo Van Pelt is my each way bet at 100/1. He finished 8th on his Masters debut last year and has a Tour best of 4 top 10’s this year. He is the best putter on Tour this season and makes more birdies per round than anyone else. He can have a big week.

Now the big guns.
Phil Mickelson (12/1). Obviously has a huge chance, unreal record at Augusta and this year ranks 2nd in putting. He has 13 top 10’s in 19 starts of which 9 are top 5’s. He won at Pebble Beach and has posted two more top 10’s since. He has to be an each way banker and I can not give a good, sensible reason not to back him. He is one of three players (the other two are Woods and Mcilroy) that if they show up they eliminate the rest of the field. My only concern would be the fact he missed a couple of short ones last week. He has a very, very good chance.

Rory Mcilroy has posted top five finishes in 12 of his last 13 events worldwide. He almost lead from start to finish here last year until he disintegrated on the back 9. He ranks first in eagles, 2nd in birdies and 1st in actual scoring average on the US Tour. The rest of his stats are pretty good too! You can have 6/1 Mcilroy. I understand this price given his form over the last year and his performance here last year. However there are three things that niggle me with a view of getting with him. Firstly, he must have some dark memories from last year. Secondly, Woods is bang in form and that intimidates anyone, will he be trying a little too hard? Thirdly, he is a win only price and considering how often he gets in contention he does not convert often enough for me. (Yeah, I know he is only 22 years old!) I am not going to be backing him at 6/1 with Mickelson twice that price.

Lee Westwood deserves to win a Major. Lee has finished in the top three in five of the last 9 Majors. He knows how to get it ready. He has had his chances here too. He finished runner up in 2010 and 11th last year after a poor 74 in round 3. He ranks 2nd in total driving, 2nd in greens in regulation but 135th in putting. And there lies the problem. He will inevitably hit it good enough to get in contention then when the pressure is really on he will miss a few shots and not get them up and down and finish up there without winning again. When he misses a green he loses momentum. I really want him to win but I will not be backing him at at 22/1. He will be a good ‘back to lay’ on Betfair.

Tiger Woods will win The Masters. We have already had 10 points on him at better odds than the 5/1 available now. If you are not on take the 5/1. The four time champion is 1st in total driving, 1st in ball striking, 7th in greens, 6th in putting, 8th in eagles, 3rd in birdies, 1st in adjusted scoring average, 5th in sand saves and 1st in birdies or better on par 5’s. In other words the four time champ is back and as good, if not better than ever. If he shows up he wins. He shoots double figures under par at Augusta playing terrible golf, he is now playing great golf. His form figures this year read 15,17,2,wd,4,1. Get on.


The Masters

1 pt each way Matt Kuchar @ 66/1 (General)

(Already Advised 6 pts Tiger Woods @ 13/2 US Masters, 4 pts Tiger Woods @ 7/1 and 1.5 pts each way Bo Van Pelt @ 100/1)


Special Bets

3 pts each way Phil Mickelson @ 8/1 Without the Big 2. (Stan James)
1 pt each way Bubba Watson @ 35/1 Without the Big 2. (Paddy Power)
0.5 pts each way Ben Crane @ 200/1 Without the Big 2. (Stan James)
1 pt John Senden Top Australian @ 12/1 (Paddy Power)
1 pt treble Van Pelt to bt Schwartzel @ 6/5, Dufner to bt McDowell @ 6/5, Bill Haas to bt Garcia @ 6/5. 72 hole match bets (Coral)

2012 running total -5.12 points. This weeks investment 13 points


2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.

Twitter: @jasonkellygolf











Comments